The Graduation Gap: Why CUNY’s Flagship Support Program Failed to Boost Long-Term Earnings
For over a decade, the Accelerated Study in Associate Programs (ASAP) at the City University of New York (CUNY) has been held up as the "gold standard" of higher education reform. By providing intensive advising, financial assistance for textbooks and transit, and mandatory academic support, the program successfully transformed the trajectory of thousands of low-income students. While the program achieved its primary goal of significantly increasing graduation rates, a sobering 14-year longitudinal study released by the research organization MDRC has revealed a persistent, puzzling reality: these extra degrees have not translated into the expected wage premiums in the labor market.
The findings challenge a fundamental assumption of modern education policy—that the mere acquisition of a credential is a reliable bridge to middle-class financial stability. As policymakers across 11 states adopt the CUNY model, the disconnect between graduation success and economic mobility is prompting a rigorous re-examination of how community colleges align their curricula with the demands of the 21st-century workforce.
A Chronology of the ASAP Model
The inception of ASAP in 2007 was driven by a crisis of attrition. Community colleges across the United States were witnessing a majority of their students drop out before completing their degrees, often leaving behind a legacy of debt without the benefit of a professional credential. CUNY sought to break this cycle by surrounding students with a comprehensive safety net.
In 2010, the program underwent a rigorous randomized controlled trial (RCT). Researchers tracked 900 low-income, full-time students across three CUNY community colleges, splitting them into an experimental group receiving ASAP support and a control group navigating the traditional college experience. The results were initially hailed as revolutionary: three years into the study, 40 percent of ASAP participants had secured an associate degree, nearly double the 22 percent rate observed in the control group.
The success of these early findings catalyzed a nationwide expansion. By the mid-2010s, the "ASAP recipe" was being replicated in Ohio, Westchester County, and beyond. Today, the program is active in more than 90 colleges across 11 states. However, as the 14-year data now shows, the "degree advantage" has narrowed over time. By 2024, the gap between the two groups had shrunk to 58 percent for ASAP students versus 50 percent for the control group—still a positive outcome, but one that highlights the "long-tail" effect of students in the control group who eventually earned degrees on their own timelines.
The Earnings Paradox: Data and Discrepancies
The most significant finding of the recent MDRC report is the stagnation of earnings. Despite the higher rate of degree attainment, students who participated in the ASAP program showed no statistically significant difference in lifetime earnings compared to their peers who did not receive the support. According to New York state employment data, both cohorts earned roughly $37,000 annually.
Several factors complicate these figures. The average includes individuals who are currently unemployed or working out-of-state—populations that can skew the data toward the lower end of the spectrum. Yet, even when accounting for these variables, lead researcher Michael Weiss of MDRC noted that the long-term earnings data remains largely flat.
This data forces an uncomfortable question: Why do traditional metrics suggest a degree should yield an additional $10,000 to $14,000 annually in New York, yet these specific graduates are failing to capture that premium?
One potential explanation lies in the composition of the degrees themselves. During the 2010 study period, many high-earning fields, such as nursing and specialized radiologic technologies, were excluded from the program’s initial scope. A large portion of the degrees earned by ASAP participants were in the liberal arts. In the current labor market, these degrees often lack a direct, high-value career pathway, frequently funneling graduates into roles in customer service, retail, or childcare. Conversely, some individuals in the control group who did not finish their degrees may have entered the workforce earlier, gaining "on-the-job" experience that allowed them to climb the corporate ladder into management positions faster than a recent, debt-burdened liberal arts graduate.
Institutional Responses and Strategic Shifts
The leadership at CUNY maintains that the program’s value extends beyond simple salary metrics. Christine Brongniart, executive director of the ASAP program at CUNY, emphasizes that the primary mission remains the rapid completion of degrees in fields of the student’s choosing. The institution argues that there are inherent societal and personal benefits to higher education that transcend the narrow scope of annual income.
However, from a fiscal policy perspective, the argument is harder to sustain. With the program now serving over 22,000 students and costing the city over $76 million annually—even as the per-student cost has dropped from $6,000 in 2010 to $3,400 today—taxpayers are rightfully looking for tangible economic returns.
In response to the shifting landscape of workforce demand, institutions are evolving. CUNY has integrated more robust career services, including mandatory resume workshops and job fairs, and has shifted its advising philosophy to guide students toward "Plan B" scenarios. If a student is blocked from a high-paying nursing program, advisers are now trained to pivot that student toward other health-sector roles rather than allowing them to settle for a general liberal arts track.
Other states are moving even faster toward workforce alignment. In North Carolina, for instance, newer iterations of the ASAP model explicitly target high-demand, industry-aligned majors, often excluding liberal arts paths entirely to ensure that the time and money invested by both the state and the student result in a high-wage career.
The Regional Variation: The Ohio Counter-Example
The debate is further complicated by contrasting results from other regions. A 2015 randomized evaluation in Ohio found that ASAP-style interventions did produce significant earnings gains six to eight years after enrollment. Researchers hypothesize that this discrepancy stems from the different demographic profiles of the students—many of whom were older—and the distinct economic conditions of Ohio’s labor market compared to New York City’s hyper-competitive and high-cost environment.
Organizations like Arnold Ventures, which have provided significant funding for the expansion of these programs, remain optimistic. Their official position is that the New York results, while sobering, do not signal a total failure of the model. Instead, they suggest that the complexity of labor market transitions requires a more nuanced approach to longitudinal research. They argue that a single study in one specific urban context should not derail a policy that has, at the very least, successfully closed the graduation gap for thousands of marginalized students.
Implications for the Future of Higher Education
The CUNY study serves as a critical inflection point for the "Completion Agenda" that has dominated American higher education for the last two decades. For years, the consensus was that if we could just get students across the graduation finish line, the labor market would handle the rest. This study suggests that the finish line is not the end of the journey, but merely the start of a much more complex transition into the workforce.
The implications are threefold:
- Curricular Alignment: Community colleges must treat the link between a specific credential and local labor market demand with greater urgency. Generalist degrees, while valuable for personal enrichment, may no longer be sufficient to justify the intensive, taxpayer-funded support provided by programs like ASAP.
- Beyond the Degree: Institutions must shift their focus from "completion" to "career placement." This requires deep, structural partnerships with local employers to ensure that curricula are not just academically rigorous, but also practically relevant.
- Refining Success Metrics: If earnings are to be a key indicator of program efficacy, then longitudinal data must become a standard part of the institutional review process. Success must be measured not by the receipt of a diploma, but by the ability of that diploma to sustain a household in an increasingly volatile economy.
As the educational landscape continues to shift, the ASAP program remains a testament to the power of support. It has proven that we can help students graduate. The next, and perhaps more difficult, challenge is ensuring that those graduates can thrive. The lesson from CUNY is clear: academic success is a necessary condition for economic mobility, but in the modern labor market, it is no longer a sufficient one.
