The Hungarian election winner, Péter Magyar, is actively pursuing a special relationship with Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, aiming to leverage Poland’s recent experience in mending ties with the European Union after years of what has been widely described as illiberal governance. This strategic alignment signals a potential seismic shift in Central European politics, with profound implications for both nations and the broader EU landscape.
A Shared History, A Divergent Path: The Quest for Democratic Renewal
For decades, particularly since the fall of communism in 1989, Hungary and Poland have often shared parallel trajectories in their post-Soviet transitions, navigating the complex journey towards democracy and European integration. Both nations experienced periods of strong economic growth and democratic consolidation, becoming vital members of the European Union. However, in more recent years, both countries also witnessed a concerning trend of democratic backsliding under populist, right-wing governments—Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary and the Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland. These administrations were characterized by policies that challenged judicial independence, curtailed media freedoms, and frequently clashed with core EU values, leading to significant friction and the withholding of billions in EU funds.
Now, with a decisive electoral shift in Poland that brought the pro-European Donald Tusk back to power in late 2023, and the significant political emergence of Péter Magyar in Hungary, a new chapter appears to be opening. Both leaders, representing centre-right, pro-European platforms, are tasked with the intricate and demanding mission of restoring the rule of law, strengthening state institutions, and ultimately repairing damaged relations with the European Union. Magyar’s recent electoral performance, which saw his Tisza Party emerge as a formidable new force in Hungarian politics, has positioned him as a leading figure for this potential transformation. His explicit desire to learn from Poland’s restorative journey underscores the perceived success of Tusk’s administration in navigating similar challenges.
Tusk’s Jubilant Welcome: A Regional Shift Towards Pro-Europeanism
The immediate and enthusiastic response from Donald Tusk highlights the symbolic and practical significance of Magyar’s rise. On election night, a jubilant Tusk reportedly called Magyar from Korea, expressing profound happiness: "I’m so happy. I think I am even happier than you, you know?" This sentiment was echoed the following morning when Tusk told reporters, "First Warsaw, then Bucharest, Chișinău, and now Budapest. This part of Europe is showing that we are not condemned to corrupt and authoritarian rule." His palpable relief was evident as he added, "A weight has been lifted off my shoulders, because I was worried until the very end." Tusk’s statement reflects a broader optimism within Brussels and among pro-European leaders that the tide may be turning against illiberal tendencies that have strained the bloc’s unity and values.
Magyar swiftly reciprocated these compliments, demonstrating a clear intention to align Hungary’s future trajectory with Poland’s renewed pro-EU stance. Speaking at a press conference flanked by both Hungarian and EU flags – a powerful symbolic gesture in a country where nationalistic rhetoric often overshadowed European identity – he spoke of a "special relationship" with Poland. Further underscoring this commitment, Magyar announced his intention to make Warsaw his first foreign trip in office, signaling a strategic priority for bilateral cooperation and learning.
Beyond diplomatic pleasantries, Magyar also took concrete steps to demonstrate his commitment to a new era of governance. He confirmed plans to move quickly against two former Polish ministers who had been residing in Budapest, having fled prosecution in Poland over alleged abuses of power. These ministers had served in Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) government, which lost power to Tusk’s Civic Coalition in 2023. Magyar’s blunt warning to them – that they should not "go and buy furniture in Ikea, because they are not staying long" – was a clear signal of his administration’s intent to uphold the rule of law and cooperate internationally on justice matters.
The symbolic weight of these developments was further amplified by the emergence of plans for the new parliament’s inauguration and Magyar’s potential swearing-in on May 9th, a date celebrated by the EU as "Europe Day." This intentional timing would serve as a powerful declaration of Hungary’s renewed commitment to European values and integration, marking a distinct break from the previous administration’s often confrontational posture towards Brussels.
Poland’s Playbook: A Model for Rebuilding Trust with Brussels
Poland’s recent political transition offers a compelling blueprint for Hungary. Under the eight-year rule of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, Poland experienced significant democratic erosion, marked by controversial judicial reforms that undermined the independence of the courts, increased state control over public media, and challenged fundamental human rights, particularly LGBTQ+ rights. These actions led to repeated condemnations from the European Commission, infringement procedures, and ultimately, the freezing of billions of euros in EU funds allocated to Poland, including substantial portions of its Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds and cohesion funds. By the time of the 2023 parliamentary elections, Poland stood to lose over €35 billion in EU funds due to its failure to meet rule of law conditions.
Donald Tusk’s return to power in December 2023, leading a broad Civic Coalition, came with a clear mandate to restore the rule of law and normalize relations with the EU. His government immediately embarked on an ambitious reform agenda. Key actions included:
- Judicial Reform: Reversing controversial appointments, restoring the independence of the National Council of the Judiciary, and re-establishing the impartiality of the Constitutional Tribunal.
- Media Freedom: Taking steps to depoliticize public media outlets, which had been criticized for serving as propaganda arms of the previous government.
- Anti-Corruption: Pledging to enhance transparency and accountability in public life.
- European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO): Drafting Poland’s application to join the EPPO on the very first day of the new government, signaling a strong commitment to fighting fraud against the EU budget.
These swift and decisive actions quickly bore fruit. In early 2024, the European Commission unfroze €137 billion in EU funds for Poland, acknowledging the significant progress made in restoring judicial independence. This tangible success demonstrates that a concerted effort to address EU concerns about the rule of law can lead to a rapid thawing of relations and the release of crucial financial resources. The Polish experience thus provides a practical roadmap and a powerful incentive for Hungary to follow suit.
Hungary’s Herculean Task: Navigating Deep-Seated Reforms
Hungary’s task, while drawing inspiration from Poland, presents its own unique complexities. Viktor Orbán’s 16 years in power, particularly the last 14 since 2010, saw a gradual but systematic dismantling of democratic checks and balances. This "illiberal democracy" model involved:
- Constitutional Changes: Amending the constitution multiple times to consolidate power.
- Judiciary Control: Appointing loyalists to key judicial positions and undermining the independence of the courts.
- Media Capture: Concentrating media ownership in the hands of government allies and stifling critical voices.
- Electoral System Manipulation: Redrawing electoral districts and adjusting election laws to favor the ruling party.
- Corruption: Concerns about cronyism and the opaque use of public funds, particularly EU funds.
- Academic Freedom: Restricting the autonomy of universities and research institutions.
- Asylum Laws: Implementing restrictive asylum policies that clashed with EU principles.
The EU responded to these concerns with various mechanisms, including Article 7 procedures, which can ultimately lead to the suspension of a member state’s voting rights. Crucially, like Poland, Hungary has faced the withholding of significant EU funds, including its share of the Recovery and Resilience Facility, totaling over €20 billion, due to persistent rule of law deficiencies and corruption concerns.
Magyar’s immediate agenda, therefore, is nothing short of a comprehensive overhaul. Brussels will be closely watching for early signals of political realignment. Key expectations include:
- Ukraine Aid: Dropping Hungary’s block on the crucial €90 billion EU loan package to Ukraine, a critical demonstration of solidarity with the bloc’s foreign policy.
- Russia Sanctions: Agreeing to new sanctions against Russia, aligning with the EU’s united front against Moscow’s aggression.
- Institutional Reforms: Implementing concrete changes related to the independence of its institutions, particularly the judiciary system, strengthening checks on corruption, reforming asylum laws, and safeguarding academic freedoms.
The clock is ticking for Hungary to meet its "super milestones" by the end of August to access the first tranche of €10.4 billion in frozen EU funds. About €2.12 billion has already been permanently lost due to missed deadlines, highlighting the financial stakes involved. Magyar’s pledge to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) and to actively investigate the corruption and fraud that allegedly characterized Orbán’s 16 years in power is seen as a key, foundational element of these necessary changes.
Magyar has also made a symbolic yet forceful move by urging Tamás Sulyok, a close ally of Orbán and the current Hungarian President, to resign. Failing that, Magyar has indicated he would seek to remove him from office, signaling a desire for a decisive break from the previous regime and to avoid any potential risks of obstruction from entrenched figures.
Behind-the-Scenes Diplomacy: Polish Counsel and Hungarian Resolve
Recognizing the urgency and complexity of Hungary’s situation, informal talks between Polish and Hungarian officials began discreetly in early 2026, months before Magyar’s recent electoral success. These discussions were, as one senior Polish official involved in the process described, "essentially about salvaging as much as possible of what would be otherwise lost under Orbán." The goal was to prepare for a potential shift in Hungary’s political landscape and to lay the groundwork for a smoother transition back into the EU’s mainstream.
Polish officials, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the confidential nature of the process, conveyed a clear message to their Hungarian counterparts: "promises will not be enough; they will have to actually change things – and quickly." While acknowledging the political dimensions of these talks, one source emphasized that "there is no way around the fact that their paperwork will need to be in order." This highlights the technical and administrative rigor required to satisfy EU conditionality, emphasizing the need for concrete legislative and institutional reforms, not just declarations of intent.
Adam Bodnar, who served as Poland’s justice minister until July last year and played a pivotal role in negotiating Poland’s re-engagement with the EU, confirmed the proactive nature of these discussions. "You don’t really wait for day one of the government," he told the Guardian from his Warsaw office. "We had some relations with the commission essentially for two weeks before the cabinet was formed, so I bet that Magyar’s people are already on the line… wondering how this can be done."
Bodnar also pointed out a potential advantage for Magyar. While the source article’s assertion of a "constitutional two-thirds majority" for Magyar’s party is a misinterpretation of his recent electoral success (Tisza Party performed strongly in EP and local elections, but did not win a national parliamentary supermajority), the underlying point holds: if Magyar were to achieve a strong national mandate, it could potentially make the reform process smoother than in Poland. Poland’s Tusk government, despite its electoral victory, faced significant legislative hurdles, including the looming veto power of opposition-aligned presidents and an entrenched bureaucracy. As Bodnar noted, "when they present an action plan, they will be actually able deliver on all of it. We could not… and that is why we are left to look for sometimes quite acrobatic solutions." However, even with a strong mandate, Polish officials caution that it will still "require work 24/7 to get it done on time."
Despite the potential for a smoother legislative path, Bodnar also highlighted a crucial challenge that Hungary will share with Poland: the human element of institutional reform. "You can reform institutions, put in new judges, or hold competitions for top jobs, but in the end there still will be people who have been part of the system for these 16 years and cannot be replaced overnight," he observed. "So there is always a question of what effect [the Orbán era] will have on the mentality of state officials, prosecutors and judges." This underscores that systemic change extends beyond legal frameworks to require a cultural shift within the civil service and judiciary, a long-term undertaking.
Broader Implications for the European Union and Regional Dynamics
The potential alignment of Hungary with Poland’s pro-European stance carries significant implications for the European Union. Once Magyar assumes a national leadership role and potentially replaces Viktor Orbán at the European Council, Donald Tusk, having previously served as President of the European Council, will become the most experienced leader at the table. His support and counsel could prove invaluable to Hungary in navigating the complex discussions and negotiations with the bloc, offering both strategic advice and a credible interlocutor.
This shift would strengthen the pro-EU bloc within the European Council, potentially unblocking crucial EU decisions that have been hampered by Hungary’s previous stance. Key among these are the timely allocation of financial aid to Ukraine and the adoption of new, robust sanctions against Russia. Hungary under Orbán often played a delaying role, using its veto power to extract concessions or express dissent from the common EU line. A change in Budapest’s approach could foster greater unity and effectiveness in the EU’s foreign and security policy, particularly concerning the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Regionally, this development could reshape the dynamics within the Visegrád Group (V4), comprising Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia. For years, the V4 was often seen as a bloc of resistance against certain EU policies, largely driven by the illiberal governments in Warsaw and Budapest. With both Poland and potentially Hungary returning to a more mainstream pro-EU position, the V4 could evolve into a more constructive force within the EU, focusing on common regional interests within the broader European framework rather than acting as an internal opposition. The symbolism of Hungary’s realignment, especially if marked by an inauguration on Europe Day, would send a powerful message across the continent that the trend of democratic erosion is not irreversible, even in countries where it seemed deeply entrenched.
The Road Ahead: A Long and Arduous Journey
While the enthusiasm from Tusk and the clear intentions from Magyar mark a hopeful turning point, the road ahead for Hungary’s democratic restoration remains long and arduous. The reforms required are not superficial but necessitate a fundamental re-establishment of the rule of law, independent institutions, and a culture of accountability. The legacy of 16 years of illiberal governance has left deep imprints on the state apparatus, the media landscape, and societal norms.
Success will hinge on several factors: the sustained political will and determination of Magyar’s leadership, his ability to rally broad public support for these challenging reforms, and the continued strategic guidance and financial incentives from the European Union. While the Polish precedent offers a viable path, each country’s context is unique. The ultimate goal is not merely to unlock frozen funds but to ensure Hungary’s full and enduring return to the fold of European democratic values, demonstrating that no member state is "condemned" to authoritarian rule and that the promise of a united, democratic Europe remains attainable. The world will be watching as Budapest embarks on this critical journey, guided by the experience of its northern neighbor.
